Europe 20 years on Pt2
Ashley Mwanza
The EU is slowly losing its attraction to neighbouring states. For the past 20 years the prize of EU membership has driven politics in eastern and central Europe, the Balkans and beyond. Already the prize is less attractive to Turkey as it sees its membership process endlessly drawn out.
Now the new members can see that they are still second-class citizens. This is not to say than any country will leave the EU: it is clear, for example, that membership of the euro has saved Ireland from bankruptcy. But as an angry middle class sees its aspirations downed in a morass of debt, politics in Hungary and other countries of central Europe could become more nationalistic and populist.
The effect is most clearly seen beyond the EU. In Bosnia, the multi-ethnic state structure that was imposed at the end of the Balkan wars of the 1990s is gradually unravelling. The carrot of eventual EU membership has not proved tasty enough to stop the rise of ethnic politics.
Even more worrying is Ukraine, the pivotal state between Russia and the EU. The economy is in free fall, largely due to the collapse of export markets for steel and the rising cost of Russian gas. At the same time, democracy has led to an endless and paralysing struggle for power between the odd couple of Ukrainian politics: the president, Viktor Yushchenko, and the prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, who emerged as victors of the 2004 “Orange Revolution”.
To rescue Ukraine seems beyond the wit and purse of Europe. With the country unable to pay its energy debts to Russia, Moscow may end up taking control of the precious gas pipelines that cross Ukraine. After the failures of democracy, many in Ukraine might be happy to make peace with the Kremlin and forget about joining the west.
No one knows if this will happen. But the tide of euro-enthusiasm has turned. If the EU is ever going to regain its lustre, it will need to take some supremely tough decisions to clarify exactly what it is, where it is going, and who takes responsibility.
0 comments: